The Geography and Price of Higher Education Post-2008

This map was released in June 2020. To see the latest iteration and analysis check out the JFI Millennial Student Debt project page.

Does the higher education system in the United States act like a typical market economy? As the costs continue to outpace incomes and student debt loads skyrocket, higher education is, de facto, no longer a public function. Institutional supply and student demand dictates the market’s behavior, with the federal government acting as lender to individual students, rather than state governments as public funders of institutions.

The US map below has been published in tandem with an in-depth analysis on the changing geography of the US higher education system. This map, as well as its accompanying study, explore the higher ed system at the zip code level from 2008 - 2017. Map data is delineated by year, college category, and driving distances. Using undergraduate enrollment and pricing data from IPEDS and commuting distances around schools, researchers can show how prices interact with institutional concentration in the thousands of local higher education markets around the US.

Click on an area to freeze the informational panel and explore the statistics and institutions for that zip. Happy mapping!

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Public
Private not-for-profit
Private for-profit
Bachelor Degree
Associate Degree
Below Associate Degree
Schools appear at higher zoom levels.

Summary Statistics

Local higher education markets are, in general, highly concentrated, and they have gotten more so over the last decade. For reference, an SCI of 2500 implies there are four local institutions (assuming equal market share for each). 5000 implies two institutions with equal market share (i.e., half), and 10,000 means one institution.

Over the last decade, the US higher education system has become more concentrated. That has several causes: the decline of the for-profit sector after the Great Recession, alongside the expansion of traditional non-profit institutions to adopt a business model similar to that of the for-profits: many more, and higher-priced, debt-financed professional degrees, and accommodating existing programs to increase enrollment among nontraditional student populations. All of that has happened in the light of reduced state support for higher education and the expansion of the federal student loan system.

Level of Analysis
National
State
Statistic
Average Net Price
Count of Zips
People Affected
Concentration

Methodology

The academic years represented here are from 2008 - 2009 to 2017 - 2018. For more information on the implications of the map and our preliminary findings, read our report here. Below, find explanations of all variables. Email us with questions about methods and findings here.

Variables derived for each ZCTA:

• School Concentration Index (SCI) - We modeled the calculation of the SCI based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). The HHI calculates market share for a particular company within a particular market; we calculate enrollment share for a particular school in a particular zip code tabulation area SCI ranges from 0 (perfect competition) to 10,000 (complete monopoly). A SCI of 10,000 indicates one school accounts for all the enrollment for that ZCTA.

$$\text{SCI}_{\text{ZCTA}} = s_1^2 + s_2^2 + \dots + s_n^2$$

Every ZCTA has a unique School Concentration Index where $n$ number of schools in each SCI equals the amount of schools where it is possible to drive to the associated ZCTA within 30, 45, or 60 minutes, depending on the selected map view. Each $s_n$ is the undergraduate enrollment share of a school within the geographic area, expressed as a whole number rather than a fraction.
• Number of Schools - The number of schools displayed for each ZCTA is a tally of the schools considered within a 30, 45, or 60 minute drive from at least a subsection of the ZCTA. The Number of schools variable takes a whole number.
• Enrollment - The enrollment displayed for each ZCTA is the summation of the enrollment for every school considered within a 30, 45, or 60 minute drive from at least a subsection of the ZCTA. Enrollment variable takes a whole number and is sourced from IPEDS 12-Month Enrollment Table. This number indicates how many unduplicated undergraduate individuals enrolled for credit the institution served over a 12 month period, regardless of when the individual enrolled.

$$\text{Enrollment}_{\text{ZCTA}} = \text{enrollment}_1 + \text{enrollment}_2 + \dots + \text{enrollment}_n$$

• 25 Mile Zone Population Estimate - In place of population estimates for individual ZCTA, we list the summation of all the population estimates for the ZCTAs within 25 miles of the selected area; the purpose being to complement the zone-type scale used for the SCI. The 25 mile population zone originates from the mathematical centroid of each ZCTA.

$$\text{Pop}_{\text{ZCTA-ZONE}} = \text{pop}_1 + \text{pop}_2 + \dots + \text{pop}_n$$

Every ZCTA has a unique 25 Mile Zone Population Estimate where $n$ number of ZCTAs in each ZCTA-zone equals the ZCTAs accessible to the root ZCTA within 25 miles. Each $\text{pop}_n$ is the population estimate for that specific ZCTA. Both $\text{pop}_n$ and $\text{Pop}_{\text{ZCTA-ZONE}}$ take a whole number.
• Average Net Price - Average Net Price is the average total cost of attending minus the average amount of federal, state or local government, or institutional grant and scholarship aid. Total cost of attendance is the sum of tuition, required fees, books and supplies, and the weighted average of room and board and other expenses. The value displayed for each ZCTA is the mean of the average net price of each school considered within a 30, 45, or 60 minute drive from at least a subsection of the ZCTA, weighted by the enrollment number of each school. The average net price per school is the average of the following variables sourced from IPEDS: NPIS412, NPIS422, NPIS432, NPIS442, NPIS452, NPT412, NPT422, NPT432, NPT442, NPT452. These variables from IPEDS show the average price of attendance for full-time, first-time degree/certificate-seeking undergraduates paying the in-state or in-district tuition rate who were awarded title IV federal student aid by varying degrees of student income level. All average net price values have been adjusted for inflation using the consumer price index (CPI) deflator and are in 2017 US dollars.

Clear-cut variables per ZCTA:

• Zip Code Tabulation Area - (Via the US Census Bureau) ZCTAs are generalized areal representations of United States Postal Service ZIP Code service areas.
• Institution Name - These names are sourced from the IPEDS Institutional Characteristics table. It represents the Institution or Entity Name.
• Map Name - The institution name plus the name of the campus / branch of that institution. The Map Name will equal Institution Name if the institution has only one campus / branch.
• Level of Institution - Level of Institutions are sourced from the IPEDS Institutional Characteristics table. A classification of whether an institution’s programs are 4-year or higher (4 year aka Bachelors), 2-but-less-than 4-year (2 year aka Associates), or less than 2-years (aka Below Associate).
• Control of Institution - Control of Institutions and definitions are sourced from the IPEDS Institutional Characteristics table. A classification of whether an institution is operated by publicly elected or appointed officials or by privately elected or appointed officials and derives its major source of funds from private sources.
• Public institution - An educational institution whose programs and activities are operated by publicly elected or appointed school officials and which is supported primarily by public funds.
• Private not-for-profit institution - A private institution in which the individual(s) or agency in control receives no compensation, other than wages, rent, or other expenses for the assumption of risk. These include both independent not-for-profit schools and those affiliated with a religious organization.
• Private for-profit institution - A private institution in which the individual(s) or agency in control receives compensation other than wages, rent, or other expenses for the assumption of risk.
• Population Estimate -
• For years 2011 - 2017: Estimate; American Community Survey 5-year Estimates for the Total Population of the ZCTA. Data are based on a sample and are subject to sampling variability. Population Estimates are not available for US Territories besides Puerto Rico.
• For 2009 and 2010: Estimate; American Community Survey 5-year Estimates for the Total Population of Census tract. Utilized the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) United States Postal Service ZIP Code Crosswalk Files (Tract to ZIP) to estimate Total Population of ZCTA by summing the product of the Census tract total population and the residential ratio for each ZIP code associated with that Census tract.
• For 2008: Estimate; American Community Survey 3-year Estimates for the Total Population of County. Utilized the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) United States Postal Service ZIP Code Crosswalk Files (County to ZIP) to estimate Total Population of ZCTA by summing the product of total County population and the residential ratio for each ZIP code associated with that County.
• Median Income Estimate -
• For years 2011 - 2017: Estimate; American Community Survey 5-year Estimates for the Median household income in the past 12 months (2017 inflation-adjusted dollars) of the ZCTA. If a ZCTA does not have a Median Income listed, this indicates that either no sample observations or too few sample observations were available to compute an estimate. Data are based on a sample and are subject to sampling variability. Median Income Estimates are not available for US Territories besides Puerto Rico.
• For 2009 and 2010: Estimate; American Community Survey 5-year Estimates for the Median household income in the past 12 months (2017 inflation-adjusted dollars) of the US Census tract. We then utilized the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) United States Postal Service ZIP Code Crosswalk Files (Tract to ZIP) to estimate the Median Income of each ZCTA by obtaining the weighted average of the product of the Census tract median income and the residential ratio for each ZIP code associated with that Census tract.
• For 2008: Estimate; American Community Survey 3-year Estimates for the Median household income in the past 12 months (2017 inflation-adjusted dollars) of County. Utilized the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) United States Postal Service ZIP Code Crosswalk Files (ZIP to County) to allocate the Median Income of each county to the respective ZCTA’s that are within that county (calculated weighted average if a ZCTA is in more than one county). In other words, for 2008, the Median Income variable indicates the median income of the county in which the ZCTA is in if the county encompasses the entire ZCTA; if the ZCTA has residential addresses in multiple counties, the variable indicates the weighted average of the median income of the respective counties that encompass that ZCTA.

Exclusion Criteria:

• We excluded schools that offered exclusively advanced degrees, exclusively distance learning degrees, and schools where level and control of institution were unknown. Also excluded were administrative offices of institutions when the institution itself was counted separately, as located. If a school offered a bachelors or higher degree but no degree below bachelors, the graduate to undergraduate student ratio was over 10, and the undergraduate enrollment was below 100, the school was excluded. For public schools, driving distances were restricted to the state where the school resides.
• In regards to branch campuses: IPEDS does not require institutions to report data separately for branch campuses. Therefore JFI researchers parsed through websites of over 400 colleges with high likelihoods of having branch campuses. If you suspect an error on our map or missing data, please do not hesitate to contact us. More on how IPEDS data is reported: According to the IPEDS handbook,
All institutions in the U.S. and other U.S. jurisdictions that have a Program Participation Agreement (PPA) with the U.S. Department of Education to participate in Title IV federal student financial aid programs are required to report data to IPEDS, and are listed as separate entities in IPEDS. These entities are considered the "main campus."
• The IPEDS definition of a branch campus is "a campus or site of an educational institution that is not temporary, is located in a community beyond a reasonable commuting distance from its parent institution, and offers full programs of study, not just courses."
• The main campus and each additional location on the PPA are listed separately in IPEDS, and report their own data.
• The main campus reports combined data for itself and any additional locations that are not listed separately in IPEDS.
• Additional locations that are not listed separately have the option of being made "campuses" in IPEDS; a small number of data items are reported for each of these locations, and they are searchable in College Navigator.